ICE - Institution of Civil Engineers - Virtual Library

Climate stability: an inconvenient proof

• Authors: David Bellamy ¹ ; Jack Barrett ²
• Source: Proceedings of the ICE - Civil Engineering, Volume 160, Issue 2, pages 66 –72 , ISSN: 0965-089X, E-ISSN: 1751-7672

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This paper demonstrates that the widely prophesied doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from natural, pre-industrial values will enhance the so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ but will amount to less than 1°C of global warming. It also points out that such a scenario is unlikely to arise given our limited reserves of fossil fuels—certainly not before the end of this century. Furthermore, the paper argues that general circulation models are as yet insufficiently accurate for civil engineers to rely on their predictions in any forward-planning decisions—the omission of solar wind effects being a potentially significant shortcoming. It concludes that the only certainty is that the world's fossil fuel resources are finite and should be used prudently and with proper respect to the environment.

• Keywords: mathematical modelling; environment; fossil fuels
• Document Type: Research Article
• DOI: 10.1680/cien.2007.160.2.66
• Affiliations: 1: Founding president at the Conservation Foundation in London; 2: Member of the advisory forum for the Scientific Alliance in Cambridge